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Trend in capital gains losing steam despite strong monthly rise in capital city dwelling valuers

Posted on 7 August 2017

Source:  CoreLogic


The housing market is gradually responding to higher mortgage rates, tighter credit policies and affordability challenges, with the quarterly trend in capital gains moderating relative to early 2017.

According to CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless, the latest housing market results highlight the diversity of housing market conditions, with dwelling values down over the month in Brisbane (-0.6%), Perth (-1.3%) and Darwin (-1.2%).
Index results as at July 31, 2017

Mr Lawless said, "The recent bounce in capital gains may be partially due to a recovery from the seasonal slump in values recorded in April and May. However, other factors, such as stamp duty concessions for first home buyers in New South Wales and Victoria, may also be having a positive impact on market demand."

He said, "It's still too early to measure the effect of first home buyer incentives, which went live on July 1st. However historically, the first time buyer segment has been very responsive to stimulus measures."

Despite the higher month-on-month capital gains in June and July, the quarterly trend rate of growth has clearly reduced.  The rolling quarterly pace of capital gains across the combined capitals has fallen from 3.6% in February earlier this year to reach 2.2% at the end of July.

The slowdown in growth conditions is most evident across the hottest markets, with the quarterly growth trend reducing from 5.0% in Sydney earlier this year to 2.2% at the end of last month.  Melbourne growth conditions have also slowed, though to a lesser extent, with growth easing from a 2017 quarterly peak of 5.5% to 4.2%.

At the other end of the growth spectrum, Perth and Darwin have continued to see dwelling values slip lower over the month, taking the cumulative decline to 10.2% in Perth and 14.5% in Darwin since both markets peaked in 2014.

The ease in the rate of decline has been most visible in Perth, providing a signal that the Western Australian capital may be approaching the bottom of the downturn; listing numbers have been falling across Perth which is a positive sign of improving conditions, and transaction numbers have found a new floor at around 2,500 sales per month.

While the housing market has slowed from the recent highs of late 2016 and early 2017, the trend rate of growth remains robust.

Mr Lawless said, "I don't think there is any one factor causing the market to lose steam, rather it is the culmination of several factors working together."

"Higher mortgage rates and tighter credit policies have dented investor appetite.  This is clear from the RBA's monthly credit aggregates which show investment related housing credit growth has consistently slowed from late last year."

CoreLogic confirmed that advertised stock levels have begun to rise in some cities,particularly in Sydney where total listing numbers are now 14% higher than at the same time a year ago.  Mr Lawless said, "More choice for buyers implies less urgency which may be easing upward pressure on prices."

"Affordability challenges are also likely to be impacting buyer demand across Sydney, where the median house price remains over $1 million."

Considering these factors, Mr Lawless expects the pace of capital gains to continue to ease through 2017, particularly in Sydney, and to a lesser degree Melbourne, where value growth has been most extreme over the past five years.





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