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Monthly Housing & Economic Pack, January 2017

Posted on 11 January 2017

Source:  CoreLogic

Home values increased  with values 2.7% higher over the three months to December 2016 and 10.9% through 2016

  • Home values were 2.7% higher over the final quarter of 2016 with Adelaide the only capital city to record a decline in values over the quarter
  • Throughout the 2016 calendar year, dwelling values increased by 10.9% which was their greatest calendar year increase since 2009
  • Across the individual capital cities, the annual change in home values have been recorded at +15.5% in Sydney, +13.7% in Melbourne, +3.6% in Brisbane, +4.2% in Adelaide, -4.3% in Perth, +11.2% in Hobart, +0.9% in Darwin and +9.3% in Canberra
  • House values across the combined capital cities increased by 11.6% in 2016 compared to a 5.9% increase in unit values throughout the year.

Settled home sales had increased over recent months before their seasonal slowdown in December

  • Over the 12 months to December 2016 it is estimated that there were 331,005 houses and 134,364 units sold and settled nationally with house sales -7.3% lower and unit sales -12.2% lower over the year
  • Across the combined capital cities there were an estimated 198,260 houses and 97,160 units sold over the 12 months to December 2016. House sales are -10.5% lower over the year while unit sales are down -14.3%
  • It is important to note, the large volume of off-the-plan sales currently means there is a high likelihood unit sales volumes will be revised higher over the coming years, these properties will be entered into the database at their contract date but will not be available until they have settled.

The average length of time a home sits on the market is trending lower as is the level of discounting taking place

  • The typical capital city house is currently selling after 36 days which is unchanged over the year while the typical capital city unit takes 37 days to sell compared to 38 days a year ago
  • The average level of discount across the capital cities is recorded at 5.8% for houses and 5.7% for units compared to 6.0% for houses and 5.9% for units 12 months ago
  • Auction clearance rates have rebounded in 2016 and during the final quarter of 2016 they were well above levels over the corresponding quarter in 2015.

The number of new properties advertised for sale are substantially higher than they were a year ago

  • New advertised properties for sale are 17.4% higher than they were a year ago nationally 17.5% higher across the combined capital cities
  • Nationally, total stock for sale is -1.9% lower than a year ago while they are 3.7% higher across the combined capital cities
  • New listings have generally been lower relative to a year ago throughout 2016, the fact that they are now so much higher than they were a year ago, at a time of the year when new stock levels typically slows dramatically, highlights the level of market confidence which currently exists amongst vendors.

Economic data remain mixed

  • New lending to both investors and owner occupiers has fallen from recent peaks with investor lending recording a much greater decline however, investment lending has risen over the past six months while owner occupier mortgage demand has slowed
  • Total housing credit is rising and although annual investment credit growth has slowed and is now well below APRAs 10% threshold for annual growth, monthly data shows growth in investor credit has picked-up over the past seven months
  • The rate of population growth at a national level is lower than recent highs but has steadied over recent quarters thanks to improving net overseas migration. Victoria is seeing a substantially more rapid rate of population growth than all other states and territories
  • Dwelling approvals fell in October and are being dragged much lower by a slowdown in new unit approvals
  • Consumer sentiment remains at a fairly neutral setting although it was more pessimistic than optimistic in December
  • Although the unemployment rate has been trending lower, the economy has shed full-time jobs over the past year with all new jobs created being part-time
  • The Reserve Bank left official interest rates on hold at 1.5% in December 2016 however, many lenders have begun lifting rates independently on some mortgage products over recent months.


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