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May Rental Index Results

Posted on 15 June 2016

Source:  CoreLogic

Actual rental change falls to a new record low in May 2016

  • Half of the capital cities have seen rents rise over the past twelve months, including Sydney (0.9%), Melbourne (2.3%), Hobart (3.7%) and Canberra (0.1%).
  • Large rental falls in Perth (-8.8%) and Darwin (-16.9%) have pulled the combined capital average lower, with rents in Brisbane (-0.9%) and Adelaide (-0.9%) also lower over the year.
  • It is anticipated that the rental market weakness will persist and that on an annual basis rents will continue to fall over the coming months.

Weekly rents have fallen by -0.3% over the past year

According to the CoreLogic Rental Index, combined capital city rental rates were unchanged in May 2016. Melbourne and Hobart were the only cities to record rental rises with falls elsewhere.

CoreLogic has been tracking annual rental changes since 1996 and this represents the lowest annual change on record. The slowdown of the rental market has been rapid over the past year with rents increasing by 1.5% at the same time a year ago. There are a number of factors contributing to the rapid slowdown in the rental market over the past year. Firstly, the softest wages growth on record suggests that renters simply can't pay more for rent with renters likely seeking out cheaper rents. Over recent times the level of investment purchasing in the market has hit record highs which is likely to have increased rental supply. At the same time, unit construction has hit record high levels; units are more than twice as likely as houses to be owned by an investor. Finally, while these factors have contributed to increasing rental supply, rental demand has slowed due to the fact that the rate of population growth has slowed.

Given these combined factors, landlords may not have much scope to lift rental rates when leases come up to renewal. In fact, landlords may actually have to offer rental reductions in order to entice renters to stay in light of the fact that rents are falling on an annual basis in some cities.

Over the past 12 months, rental rates have increased in Sydney (+0.9%), Melbourne (+2.3%), Hobart (+3.7%) and Canberra (+0.1%). Rental rates have fallen over the past year in Brisbane (-0.9%), Adelaide (-0.9%), Perth (-8.8%) and Darwin (-16.9%). The rental changes over the past year in Brisbane and Perth are at record lows and at near record lows in Adelaide and Perth.

Rental index Results as at 31 May 2016

Change in Rents
Region Current Quarter YoY
Sydney $600 0.3% 0.9%
Melbourne $457 1.0% 2.3%
Brisbane $431 0.1% -0.9%
Adelaide $365 -0.1% -0.9%
Perth $435 -1.7% -8.8%
Hobart $355 4.2% 3.7%
Darwin $471 -6.6% -16.9%
Canberra $500 0.0% 0.1%

 

Over the past month, house rents have fallen by -0.1% while unit rents increased by 0.5%. Over the past three months house rents rose 0.2% compared to a 0.5% rise in unit rents.

Although rental rates have been increasing over recent months, over recent years we've found rental change is typically much stronger earlier in the year than over the second half.

Over the past 12 months, house rents are -0.7% lower while unit rents have increased by 1.6%.

The current annual decline in house rents is the largest on record, with the CoreLogic rental series extending back to 1996, while annual unit rental growth is occurring at its slowest pace on record.

With housing supply, and subsequently rental supply, continuing to rise as growth in wages and the population continues to slow, it is unlikely we will see a turnaround in rental markets in the short-term. As a result, renters will continue to have more choice and may actually be able to move into superior rental accommodation for similar or even lower costs. Over recent years landlords haven't had much incentive to try too hard to push yields higher due to the low cost of debt and strong capital gains. However, with capital gains starting to slow, we may see a renewed focus on rental returns which will be difficult in the face of falling rents and increasing rental supply. Lower rents may also act as a disincentive for first home buyers to enter into home ownership as they may be able to save more for a future deposit.

Across most capital cities rental rates have fallen from their peak, in fact Melbourne and Hobart are the only cities in which rents sit at record highs. Across the remaining capital cities the decline in rents from their respective peaks are recorded at: -0.3% in Sydney, -0.9% in Brisbane, -1.4% in Adelaide, -14.0% in Perth, -22.0% in Darwin and -7.2% in Canberra.

We expect that rental market conditions are likely to remain weak and will likely soften further over the coming months.

 

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