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Market Update - 14 December 2015

Posted on 14 December 2015

Source:  Corelogic RP Data

Late last week the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released October data on overseas arrivals and departures.  The data is important because it highlights how the tourism market is going as well as providing up-to- date details of overseas migration.  According to the data there were 675,680 permanent and long-term settler arrivals to Australia over the year to October 2015 which is -5.5% lower over the year.  Annual permanent settler arrivals are currently at their lowest level since August 2008.  Over the past year there were 397,450 permanent and long-term settler departures which was 3.6% higher over the year and also a record high.  The data highlights more Australians leaving the country and fewer migrants coming to the country, as a result there were 278,230 net arrivals over the year.  This figure represents an annual fall of -16.1% and the lowest net arrivals since June 2007.  While permanent settler arrivals have fallen, short-term arrivals hit a record 7,293,800 over the year which was an increase of 6.5%.

Housing finance data for October 2015 was released earlier this week by the ABS.  The data showed that over the month there was $32.6 billion worth of housing finance commitments which was the lowest by value since May 2015.  The figures consisted of $21.2 billion in commitments by owner occupiers and $11.5 billion in commitments from investors.  The owner occupier figure has increased by 0.4% over the month and 21.2% year-on-year with new loan commitments 0.2% higher over the month and 18.6% higher year-on-year and refinance commitments 0.8% higher over the month and 26.9% higher year-on-year.  Investment housing finance commitments have slowed sharply over recent months, falling by -18.9% from their record high in April 2015.  Over the month, investor housing finance commitments accounted for 44.5% of new (excluding refinances) housing finance commitments, its lowest proportion since July 2013.

Consumer sentiment data for December 2015 was released earlier this week by Westpac and the Melbourne Institute.  The Consumer Sentiment Index fell by -0.8% over the month to 100.8 points.  The index reading above 100 points indicated that despite the monthly fall consumers remained slightly more optimistic than pessimistic.


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