Source: Australian Property Journal
THE growth rate for capital city dwelling prices across the country are set to peak in the first half of 2022 before steadying thanks to stricter lending regulations.
According to SQM Research’s Christopher’s Housing Boom and Bust Report 2022, rising prices are anticipated to slow and even begin to decline, with further intervention from the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) expected in the new year.
“As 2021 draws to a close, the national housing market is starting to show signs of a peak,” said Louis Christopher, managing director of SQM Research.
The research suggests that prices could start to drop by mid-year, with Sydney and Melbourne houses feeling the bulk of the decline due to overvaluation and markets most susceptible to regulations from APRA, having seen the most significant impacts from 2017 measures.
Notably, the two city’s unit rental markets and unit price growth may outpace more overvalued houses, with apartments set to benefit from reopened borders and greater net migration.
"We may also be recording some seasonality and pent-up selling after vendors held off listings during the lockdown. Nevertheless, we expect the market to peak in 2022, with further expected intervention by APRA, which could come as early as next month, halting
the price momentum,” added Christopher.
The scenarios outlined in the report speculate the most positive outcome for 2022 to be a capital city weighted average as high as an 8% increase and as low as a 4% fall, from the current YTD gains of 20.6%.
Brisbane is expected to see the greatest gains, though at a less significant rate than the 2021 YTD increase of 22.3%. With prices being placed under upwards pressure by elevated interstate migration, the report’s base case outlines an increase of 8% to 14%.
“If the Australian housing market does not slowdown by mid-2022, APRA will likely keep intervening in home lending until the market does slowdown.”
The report also predicts that regional dwelling prices, especially in inland locations, are likely to return to a normative rate, with buyers likely to refocus their interest on capital cities.
“We cannot afford another year of 20%-plus gains across the national housing market. And so, to ensure a soft landing for the market, it is best we see additional intervention sooner rather than later to reign in property valuations,” concluded Christopher.
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