Auction clearance rates drop to lowest level since lockdown

Source: Realestate.com.au

Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane have recorded auction clearance rates not seen since the early Covid pandemic sent global markets into turmoil, with buyers and sellers alike feeling the impact of the current flailing economy.

The latest data from SQM Research found that Sydney’s clearance rate for last week was just 37.9 per cent, a 10 per cent decrease since mid-April last year.

Low clearance rates have typically preceded falls in home prices in the past.

SQM Research director Louis Christopher said it was “a very, very bleak result” for the Sydney housing market.

“Our numbers are some of the lowest we’ve recorded since the Covid lockdown in 2020, when auction markets essentially collapsed in the lead up to lockdown,” he said. “What it tells me is that housing prices are falling in Sydney as we speak.”

SQM’s revised forecast for the year is that Sydney housing prices would fall by up to 6 per cent.

“I would suggest we’re very much on track for that type of outcome,” Mr Christopher said.

Melbourne recorded a clearance rate of 43.7 per cent, while less than a quarter of Brisbane auctions were successful (22.8 per cent).

For the Victorian capital, Mr Christopher said “it’s not a great result”.

“It’s certainly not as weak as Sydney’s, but we’ve been noticing that Melbourne’s clearance rates have actually been in a downtrend since August 2025,” he said.

“And it’s been a pretty persistent downtrend.”

While Brisbane has rarely been an auction hotspot, Mr Christopher said the clearance rate of 22 per cent is still down on recent performance.

“It might be a sign that there’s a little bit of caution in the Brisbane market now, but too early to call it yet,” he said.

A high number of auctions were rescheduled or readvertised in Sydney (181) and Melbourne (100) last week.

Mr Christopher said these delays were attempts to build up more buyer interest, and noted that there more rescheduling in April than normally takes place due to multiple public holiday periods.

“Nevertheless, that was quite a high number of rescheduled auctions or readvertised as private treaty auctions,” he said.

Forty-seven auction listings were withdrawn in Sydney last week, compared to 20 in Melbourne.

Mr Christopher said he expected buyers to remain cautious up until the next Reserve Bank meeting on May 5.

“It’s not just what the RBA does, but what their language is going forward,” he said.

“If their language is hawkish – that this might not be the only rate rise, and that there could be others because we’re concerned about inflation – that’s going to be a real negative for the housing market and I wouldn’t expect auction clearance rates to recover during the month of May.”

May will also see the federal budget delivered, which could introduce major changes to the country’s property tax policies.

“It’s already been flagged that there could be property tax changes in that budget, so if the tax changes are rather aggressive, I’m not so sure we’re going to see investor activity in the market going forward for a considerable period of time,” Mr Christopher said.

“So, the immediate outlook is weak.”